Pre-tourney Rankings
Central Florida
Conference USA
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#93
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#68
Pace63.5#267
Improvement+0.7#137

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#101
Improvement+1.3#96

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#96
Improvement-0.6#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.4% n/a n/a
Average Seed 12.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.7% n/a n/a
First Round3.8% n/a n/a
Second Round0.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2011 22   @ Florida St. L 50-73 16%     0 - 1 -6.9 -12.7 +6.0
  Nov 18, 2011 235   High Point W 84-72 89%     1 - 1 +4.2 +2.3 +1.8
  Nov 24, 2011 168   College of Charleston W 74-63 70%     2 - 1 +10.9 +2.9 +8.1
  Nov 25, 2011 36   Connecticut W 68-63 31%     3 - 1 +15.4 +8.0 +8.1
  Nov 26, 2011 49   Harvard L 49-59 38%     3 - 2 -1.5 -10.5 +7.3
  Dec 03, 2011 304   Hartford W 67-48 95%     4 - 2 +6.0 -7.6 +14.3
  Dec 10, 2011 257   Bethune-Cookman W 53-51 91%     5 - 2 -7.1 -13.4 +6.8
  Dec 13, 2011 303   N.C. A&T W 77-65 94%     6 - 2 -0.7 -2.9 +1.7
  Dec 17, 2011 107   Old Dominion W 61-53 67%     7 - 2 +8.8 -1.4 +11.0
  Dec 21, 2011 198   @ Louisiana L 60-61 65%     7 - 3 +0.5 -2.0 +2.4
  Dec 29, 2011 260   Stetson W 80-70 91%     8 - 3 +0.8 -1.7 +2.2
  Dec 30, 2011 215   Rhode Island W 65-54 86%     9 - 3 +4.8 -2.6 +9.1
  Jan 04, 2012 186   Tulane W 60-53 83%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +2.3 -8.1 +11.0
  Jan 07, 2012 138   @ East Carolina W 81-63 49%     11 - 3 2 - 0 +23.7 +10.1 +13.5
  Jan 11, 2012 182   Houston W 74-63 82%     12 - 3 3 - 0 +6.7 +2.9 +4.8
  Jan 14, 2012 76   @ Marshall L 64-65 33%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +9.1 -2.0 +11.0
  Jan 18, 2012 10   Memphis W 68-67 27%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +12.7 +6.9 +5.9
  Jan 21, 2012 124   @ UAB W 48-41 46%     14 - 4 5 - 1 +13.4 -7.2 +22.3
  Jan 25, 2012 94   @ Tulsa L 61-66 38%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +3.6 -0.6 +3.6
  Jan 28, 2012 69   Southern Miss L 65-78 57%     14 - 6 5 - 3 -9.4 -3.8 -6.5
  Feb 04, 2012 181   @ SMU W 59-52 61%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +9.5 +9.1 +2.8
  Feb 08, 2012 76   Marshall W 67-60 58%     16 - 6 7 - 3 +10.3 +0.9 +10.0
  Feb 11, 2012 69   @ Southern Miss L 74-78 31%     16 - 7 7 - 4 +6.4 +4.8 +1.5
  Feb 18, 2012 138   East Carolina W 64-55 73%     17 - 7 8 - 4 +7.9 -4.2 +12.9
  Feb 22, 2012 145   @ Rice L 74-83 51%     17 - 8 8 - 5 -4.0 +7.1 -11.3
  Feb 25, 2012 131   UTEP W 63-45 73%     18 - 8 9 - 5 +17.1 +9.0 +13.2
  Feb 28, 2012 10   @ Memphis L 55-84 11%     18 - 9 9 - 6 -10.5 -11.9 +2.7
  Mar 03, 2012 124   UAB W 71-63 71%     19 - 9 10 - 6 +7.6 +7.1 +1.2
  Mar 08, 2012 124   UAB W 64-54 59%     20 - 9 +13.0 +5.1 +9.5
  Mar 09, 2012 10   @ Memphis L 52-83 11%     20 - 10 -12.5 -14.2 +2.7
Projected Record 20.0 - 10.0 10.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 100.0% 8.4% 8.4% 12.4 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.6 0.2 91.6 8.4%
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.4% 0.0% 8.4% 12.4 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.6 0.2 91.6 8.4%